Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 4.681911 5.579310 6.574676 7.756662 9.117849 10.632022 12.439441
2025-03-30 3.357921 4.562397 6.049459 8.001512 10.475281 13.482927 17.390607
2025-04-06 2.480376 3.783892 5.549863 8.072146 11.528858 16.040030 22.300690
2025-04-13 1.883692 3.190017 5.111724 8.064200 12.386943 18.368212 27.124852
2025-04-20 1.617439 2.991961 5.157518 8.688515 14.138596 22.034117 34.080960
2025-04-27 1.343668 2.706265 4.997618 8.946858 15.344922 25.006442 40.301517
2025-05-04 1.146920 2.499233 4.912760 9.284980 16.678047 28.253489 47.170717
2025-05-11 0.942480 2.224918 4.654638 9.278060 17.428431 30.641441 52.898676
2025-05-18 0.744459 1.910548 4.259935 8.958753 17.593746 32.081210 57.217869
2025-05-25 0.577731 1.615670 3.841402 8.519600 17.475541 33.011185 60.745169
2025-06-01 0.475783 1.439099 3.624047 8.423192 17.945164 34.946321 66.046952
2025-06-08 0.392538 1.283834 3.420139 8.316999 18.371350 36.821154 71.356571
2025-06-15 0.357987 1.250204 3.488812 8.802482 20.019282 41.059228 81.171180
2025-06-22 0.306700 1.154970 3.396764 8.930450 20.976664 44.125431 89.151306
2025-06-29 0.258621 1.053271 3.268180 8.956368 21.726091 46.861145 96.726182
2025-07-06 0.216439 0.954985 3.127014 8.929266 22.355869 49.410237 104.121644
2025-07-13 0.206322 0.962620 3.270598 9.603707 24.561612 55.178532 117.890849
2025-07-20 0.183483 0.916470 3.255410 9.882776 25.920215 59.360334 128.890822
2025-07-27 0.166017 0.884425 3.274403 10.250212 27.510553 64.112773 141.260327
2025-08-03 0.141047 0.811860 3.156539 10.242336 28.234266 67.138743 150.431434
2025-08-10 0.112716 0.711031 2.926283 9.894377 28.116861 68.398370 156.170427
2025-08-17 0.087345 0.609301 2.665725 9.415707 27.624240 68.812525 160.215183
2025-08-24 0.072611 0.552066 2.542394 9.310580 28.039936 71.209774 168.440463